OK, so I waited until 8pm with the LT run. So the weather cooled down, but I had to face the other problem: chili and coffee before the run = upset stomach. Somehow I did manage the run without throwing up though, and my splits were quite good: 6:15, 6:18, 6:31 (hilly mile), 6:16, 6:08, 6:13. It's a 6:17 average, and this was definitely not race effort. In fact I sprinted another quarter mile after finishing the sixth mile, because I felt like pushing a bit and I thought it would be cool to run a sub-39 10K in training (which I did).

So it seems like all three components are together. Fitness is fine. Lactate threshold is fine. Endurance is fine. I do have a chance of sub-3.